![]() We will also discuss the challenges associated with structure and intensity predictions especially in context of the major lanfalling hurricanes in 2017 and provide recommendations for further improving tropical cyclone guidance.Before the advent of satellites, storms devastated places like Galveston, Texas, and the Florida Keys with no warning. ![]() At the meeting apart from conventional verification, we will provide some details of the inner core structure and comparisons with aircraft observations for all the 3 cases. In the case of Maria, the basin-scale HWRF, again, captured the RI several cycles in advance. In the case of Irma, the basin-scale HWRF forecasted the tracks, intensity changes associated with the terrain interactions over Espaniola, the large rainbands and the associated helicity over Florida near and at landfall very well. The model captured accurately the rapid intensification (RI) event before landfall, and the slow and nearly stagnant motion of Harvey that resulted in record rainfall in and around Houston, Texas. This experimental HWRF configuration was the best NOAA model for Hurricane Harvey. In this talk we will especially focus on the intensity and structure predictions from the 2-km runs of the basin-scale HWRF system for these land-falling hurricanesįor the first time, tail doppler radar observations from NOAA P3s and High-Density observations (HDOBS from P-3, C-130) were assimilated into the basin-scale HWRF for Harvey, Irma and Maria. For instance the basin-scale HWRF was at least 10% better in terms of tracks when compared to HWRF as well as GFS for all major land-falling hurricanes in 2017 (Harvey, Irma and Maria). Both HFIP experimental models showed significant track improvements over the parent models (GFS and HWRF). ![]() ![]() In the 2017 hurricane season, two main Stream 2 activities were run in real-time to supplement the Global Forecast System (GFS) and HWRF: 1) the “basin-scale HWRF”, an advanced version of the HWRF system that is being developed at NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and 2) the FV3-Global Forecast System, the next generation global prediction system being developed at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Highlighting the success of these efforts, HFIP Stream 2 activities have been responsible for all major research to operations (R2O) transitions related to the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model. The “jet” high-performance computing facility located in Boulder, CO serves as a primary resource for Stream 2 efforts. Candidates for operational transitions are primarily identified through the evaluation of track and intensity forecasts. The purpose of Stream 2 activities is to apply new or advanced science and technologies in an operational-equivalent setting with the purpose of identifying the research activities that are candidates for transition into NOAA operations. A major component of NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) is the support of real-time experiments, called “Stream 2 activities”.
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